The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) on April 1 released its citrus export estimates for 2026, which point to continued growth.
The report includes estimates of all varieties, excluding late mandarins (which make up the bulk of the mandarin crop). Taking the historic trajectory of late mandarins into account, total citrus exports are expected to increase by approximately 3% to 5%, reaching a total of between 210 to 215 million cartons.
“We are acutely aware of the uncertainties the industry faces with the current war in the Middle East’s potential effect on demand, shipping, fuel availability and input costs,” said Boitshoko Ntshabele, chief executive officer of the CGA. “But, should all that is possible be done to limit the impact of these factors, steady growth towards another record export season is within reach.”
LEMONS
The export estimate for lemons is 45.9 million cartons, a 10% increase from last year’s exports of 41.6 million cartons. The expected increase is due to a significant number of young trees coming into production in the Sundays River Valley, as well as the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) region’s recovery from hail damage in past seasons.
NAVEL ORANGES
Predictions are for 30 million cartons of navel oranges, a 5% reduction from 2025’s record exports. It is still, however, in line with the long-term growth trajectory. The navel category is separated into early/midseason varieties (13.4 million cartons) and late varieties (16.6 million cartons).
VALENCIA ORANGES
The Valencia orange export estimate increases 1.6% from last year’s 62 million cartons to 63 million cartons for 2026. There was an exceptional increase in Valencia volumes last season due to optimal growing conditions.
GRAPEFRUIT
Grapefruit exports are estimated at 15.7 million cartons. This is a 16% increase from the 13.5 million cartons that were packed for export last year. The increase can mostly be attributed to optimal growing conditions, although wet conditions in the northern areas have disrupted early harvesting of grapefruit to an extent.
MANDARINS
The estimates of three early mandarin varieties are as follows:
- The Satsuma season is likely to close around the 1.5 million cartons mark again.
- The Nova season shows a 3% decrease to 5.6 million cartons.
- Clementines are projected to decrease 4%, with expected exports of 6.2 million cartons.
The estimates for late mandarin varieties will be communicated later.
See the full export report from the CGA here.
Source: CGA
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