Information obtained through March indicates that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity somewhat below the 1991–2020 average, Colorado State University (CSU) reported on April 9.
CSU estimated that 2026 will have:
- 13 named storms (average is 14.4)
- 55 named storm days (average is 69.4)
- 6 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
- 20 hurricane days (average is 27)
- 2 major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes (average is 3.2)
- 5 major hurricane days (average is 7.4)
HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is also estimated to be below its long-period average.
Probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas are as follows:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 32% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 15% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville, Texas – 20% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak La Niña conditions. These La Niña conditions are likely to transition to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions shortly, with an expected transition to El Niño over the next few months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how strong this likely El Niño will be by the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while they are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. CSU anticipates that a robust El Niño will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely driving above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
CAUTION ABOUT APRIL FORECAST
CSU cautioned that the early April forecast is the earliest seasonal forecast it issues and has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode.
The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
CSU will issue updates to its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
See the full April CSU forecast here.
Source: CSU
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