Colorado State University (CSU) on June 10 reduced its 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and continues to anticipate a below-normal season.
The June 10 forecast projects:
- 11 named storms (compared to 13 projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 14.4)
- 45 named storm days (compared to 55 projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 69.4)
- Five hurricanes (compared to six projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 7.2)
- 15 hurricane days (compared to 20 projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 27)
- Two major hurricanes (compared to two projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 3.2)
- Four major hurricane days (compared to five projected in April and a 1991 to 2020 average of 7.4)
According to CSU, warm neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to transition to El Niño shortly, with a high potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average but are cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
CSU anticipates El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. CSU is forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” states CSU’s June forecast.
The initial hurricane forecast from CSU for 2026 was released on April 19. Additional forecast updates are scheduled for July 8 and Aug. 5.
See the full CSU June 10 forecast here.
Source: CSU
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