A recent review of the 2025–26 global lemon market reported a drop in supply, highlighted by Türkiye’s production collapse. Economists Pablo Resco Sánchez and Pablo Santiago Izu Pérez of Platform Land conducted the review.
According to the review, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for the 2025–26 season put global lemon production at around 10.1 million tons. That’s a 6.6% drop from the previous season and a cumulative reduction of 10.3% in two seasons. This trend is mainly explained by Türkiye and the European Union, which account for virtually the entire global production drop.
TÜRKIYE: EXTREME WEATHER
The Turkish decline is the most striking and is the result of extreme weather events. In 2023–24, Türkiye was the world’s second largest producer of lemons with 2.33 million tons. Forecasts for 2025–26 put it at just 1.1 million tons, a 36.3% drop from the previous season and a cumulative loss of 52.6% in just two seasons. This season, Türkiye lost 628,000 tons. As a result, Türkiye’s share in the global total went from 16% in 2024–25 to 11% in 2025–26.
Between February and April 2025, there were three waves of frost that hit Türkiye’s main citrus provinces (Adana, Mersin and Hatay), where 93% of the national lemon production is concentrated. The first frost brought temperatures to 18 degrees Fahrenheit in the Çukurova region, which produces 40% of Turkish citrus fruits. The third and most devastating frost affected 36 provinces with temperatures as low as 5 degrees Fahrenheit, and some citrus areas reported losses of 80%. The severity led the government to decree a temporary ban on lemon exports on April 8, 2025. The ban was lifted two days later following pressure from the export sector.
Turkish lemon plantations also suffered hail and a wave of historical heat in August 2025, with Adana reaching 117 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest in 95 years.
EUROPEAN UNION DECLINE
The European Union also confirms a downward path, with production estimated at 1.34 million tons for 2025–26. That’s 12% less than in 2024–25 and 22% below the 1.73 million tons produced in 2023–24.
INCREASES IN OTHER PLACES
Several global producers show moderate increases.
Mexico, the world’s largest producer at 3.37 million tons, is growing by 3% and expanding its global share to 34%.
South Africa increased its production by 3.7% to 840,000 tons, reinforcing its role as a relevant supplier of the European market during the summer.
Source: valenciafruits.com
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