Colorado State University (CSU) on July 8 again reduced its 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipates a well below-normal season.
“Information obtained through June indicates that the season will have activity well below the 1991–2020 average,” CSU stated.
CSU estimates that 2026 will have:
- 9 named storms (average is 14.4)
- 35 named storm days (average is 69.4)
- 4 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
- 12 hurricane days (average is 27)
- 1 major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane (average is 3.2)
- 2 major hurricane days (average is 7.4)
LOW LANDFALL PROBABILITIES
“We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU stated.
CSU’s probabilities for at least one major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane landfall on each of the following U.S. coastal areas is:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline: 17% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida): 8% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville, Texas: 10% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 27%)
The probability for at least one major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane tracking through the Caribbean is 19% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 47%).
REASON BEHIND THE FORECAST
“We have reduced the forecast numbers from our June outlook due to increased confidence in a strong or very strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” CSU stated. It noted that the tropical Pacific is currently characterized by moderate El Niño conditions, with all signs pointing toward a powerful El Niño in the next few months. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are near average.
“We currently anticipate that El Niño will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driving well above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean,” CSU stated.
The CSU forecasters added that the early July forecast has good long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode. They stated that the skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
See the full CSU July 8 hurricane forecast here.
Source: CSU
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