By Marcos Fava Neves
Marcos Fava Neves
The annual compilation of data on the world’s orange juice consumption recently became available for 2017. Markestrat researchers analyzed 40 countries that represent almost 100 percent of the world’s processed juice market.
The information was first compiled in 2003. At that time, in frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) equivalent, world consumption was 2,390,000 tons. In 2017, it was 1,882,000 tons, a drop of 21 percent in almost 15 years. Consumption shrunk in all relevant and mature markets.
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
From 2003 to 2017, consumption saw the largest decline (43 percent) in the United States, going from 1 million tons to 570,000 tons, and in Germany, where it slipped from 250,000 to 142,000 tons. In France, the numbers dipped from 152,000 to 134,000 tons (12 percent less). In the United Kingdom, consumption dropped from 143,000 to 111,000 tons (22 percent less). Canada’s figures declined from 116,000 to 105,000 tons (10 percent lower).
Some countries saw growth in orange juice consumption. The most important were China (from 46,000 to 130,000 tons) and Brazil (from 42,000 to 70,000 tons).
From 2016 to 2017, worldwide orange juice consumption fell nearly 4 percent, going from 1,956,000 to 1,882,000 tons. U.S. consumption fell 9 percent; Germany, 4.4 percent; and France, 1.4 percent. There was growth in some markets, including China, Brazil, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
However, growth in emerging markets from 2016 to 2017 was not enough to compensate for the loss in the large and mature markets. Worldwide consumption figures were as follows:
- North America: down 39 percent
- Europe: down 23 percent
- Oceania: down 12 percent
- Asia: up 24 percent
- Latin America: up 69 percent
- Middle East: up 107 percent
- Africa: up 67 percent
FORECASTED SUPPLY
On the supply side, Florida’s 2017–18 crop was 45 million boxes of oranges. An early estimate from citrus consultant Elizabeth Steger forecasted 46.6 million trees that will produce 77 million boxes of Florida oranges in the 2018–19 season. The current orange crop is seeing good, uniform bloom and favorable weather. The first Florida forecast for the season from the U.S. Department of Agriculture will be on Oct. 11.
According to Citrus BR, Brazil’s orange juice inventories were 342,967 tons FCOJ equivalent as of June 30, up from 107,387 tons on the same date last year. The 2018–19 Brazilian orange crop is forecasted to be 30 percent shorter with the drought. Inventories are expected to be approximately 146,000 tons at the end of June 2019, with the estimate of 288 million boxes of oranges and internal fresh market consumption of 40 million boxes and yield of 258 boxes per ton of FCOJ. This would produce approximately 989,500 tons (959,000 in São Paulo and 30,000 in other states) and availability of 1,332,430 tons of FCOJ (production plus inventories). Citrus BR estimates the world demand for Brazilian FCOJ is 1,185,714 tons.
Prices in Europe are around $2,400 per ton. Even with a larger expected crop in Florida, the trend is to continue at this price level because supply is shorter due to the weather issues in Brazil (drought) and Europe (high temperatures).
Marcos Fava Neves is a professor of business in Brazil at the University of São Paulo and the Fundação Getulio Vargas São Paulo School of Business Administration.
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