Florida Orange, Grapefruit Forecast Trimmed

Ernie Neff Forecast


The forecast for Florida orange and grapefruit production were each trimmed by approximately 2 percent on Dec. 10. Forecasts for all other citrus varieties in all citrus-producing states were unchanged from the initial October report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

The Florida all-orange forecast is now for 56 million boxes, down from 57 million boxes in the initial forecast of the season in October. The 1 million-box reduction for Florida oranges was totally in the non-Valencia crop, which was reduced from 23 million boxes to 22 million boxes. NASS reported that current fruit size for non-Valencia oranges is above average and projected to be above average at harvest. Current fruit droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum at harvest. The Florida Valencia forecast was maintained at 34 million boxes.

The Florida all-grapefruit forecast is now 4.4 million boxes, down from 4.5 million boxes in October. The 100,000-box reduction for Florida grapefruit was totally in the red grapefruit crop, which was reduced from 3.8 million boxes to 3.7 million boxes. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and droppage is projected to be above average. The Florida white grapefruit forecast was maintained at 700,000 boxes.

If the forecast is realized, Florida all-orange production will be 17 percent less than last season’s final production, and Florida’s all-grapefruit production will be 9 percent less than last season.

The following citrus crop forecasts, unchanged since October, are:

  • 50.5 million boxes for all California oranges
  • 1.5 million boxes for all Texas oranges
  • 3.8 million boxes for all California grapefruit
  • 4.9 million boxes for all Texas grapefruit
  • 1.3 million boxes for Arizona lemons
  • 22 million boxes for California lemons
  • 1.1 million boxes for Florida tangerines and tangelos
  • 23 million boxes for California tangerines and tangelos

See the full citrus crop forecast report here.

The next citrus crop forecast is scheduled for Jan. 12. You can listen to it here.

Thank you to the 2020-21 citrus crop forecast sponsors: Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida, Labor Solutions, OrangeRX and TradeMark Nitrogen Corp.

Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

Share this Post