Brazil’s First Orange Forecast for 2022–2023

Jim Rogers Brazil, Crop Forecast

The 2022–2023 initial orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 316.95 million boxes. The forecast was published on May 26 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The projected volume is 20.53% higher than the previous crop, which totaled 262.97 million boxes.

Orange Forecast

The orange production forecast includes:
• 59.48 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi
• 17.52 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and BRS Alvorada
• 93.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio
• 106.78 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha
• 39.22 million boxes of Natal

The prospect of a better crop indicates that groves could recover from
the drought and frost that took place in 2020 and 2021 and caused two consecutive small crops.

“Owing to better climate conditions, most orange trees in the citrus planted area show good fruit load and heavier oranges than those in the last crop, at the same development stage,” states the Fundecitrus report.

YIELD AND SIZE

Average yield this crop season is estimated at 920 boxes per hectare and 1.86 boxes per tree as compared to the 760 boxes per hectare and 1.58 boxes per tree harvested in the 2021–2022 crop.

The average number of fruits per tree, without considering the drop that occurs throughout the season, is estimated at 668. This represents an increase of 4.5% in relation to the previous crop.

The final fruit size projection is 258 fruits per 40.8-kilogram box.

The estimated orange weight at harvest is 158 grams, which is 10.49% more than last season.

BEARING TREES

According to the Fundecitrus report, bearing trees total 169.97 million and occupy an area of 344,389 hectares in this crop season. This represents an increase of 3.41 million trees, 2% above the 2021 inventory. Orange production area has decreased by 0.50%, due to higher planting density in recent years.

DROP RATE

The projected average drop rate is 20%. The main reason for this projection is the increased incidence of orange trees with citrus greening symptoms, which rose from 20.87% in 2020 to 22.37% in 2021. Other reasons include problems with fruit borers, fruit flies, black spot and leprosis.

See Brazil’s orange crop forecast report here.

Source: Fundecitrus

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