Brazil’s Final Orange Forecast for 2022–23

Josh McGillBrazil, Crop Forecast

The final 2022–23 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 314.21 million 90-pound boxes. While the crop declined 0.6% from the February forecast, it is much larger than the country’s 2021–22 crop.

Photo by Pauline Bernfeld on Unsplash

The Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties declined by 1.1% since February to 105.01 million boxes, and the Natal variety declined 2.2% to 38.12 million boxes.

The forecast for other orange varieties was unchanged from February, with Hamlin, Westin and Rubi at 58.04 million boxes, other early season varieties at 16.69 million boxes and Pera Rio at 96.35 million boxes.

The forecast was published April 10 by Fundecitrus and was performed in cooperation with its partners.

The production of the 2022–23 crop exceeded the 2021–22 season by 19.49%. The 2021–22 crop was severely impacted by a combination of drought and frost, resulting in a drastic reduction in harvest. The production of the current crop is equal to the historical average.

For all orange varieties in the 2022–23 season, the average weight was 159 grams per fruit, approximately 5.61 ounces. That’s slightly above the historical average
of the last five harvests, which is 156 grams, roughly 5.50 ounces. The oranges of the early-season cultivars
showed a smaller size than expected, while the mid-season and late-season varieties showed a larger size than

Rains contributed to a significant increase in premature
fruit drop this season. This was particularly noticeable in late-season varieties. The fruits of these cultivars remained on the plants longer, which triggered the
increase in the drop rate. The drop rate reached the highest levels ever recorded for the Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal varieties since research began in 2015–2016.

Overall, the average fruit drop rate in the citrus belt increased to 21.30%, accumulated since the beginning of
the harvest. Hamlin, Westin and Ruby’s drop rate was 10.4%. The other early-season varieties showed a slightly higher drop rate of 14.2%. Pera Rio had a fruit drop rate of 20.3%, while the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties had a higher fruit drop rate of 27.5%. The Natal variety had the highest fruit drop rate at 28%.

In the last three years, the fruit drop rate has remained above 21%, which represents an increase compared to
previous years, when this rate persisted around 17%.

See the full forecast here.

The first forecast for Brazil’s 2023–24 season will be released on May 10.

Source: Fundecitrus

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