Brazil’s Orange Forecast Declines

Daniel CooperBrazil, Crop Forecast


The updated forecast for the 2023–24 orange crop in Brazil’s citrus belt is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. That’s a reduction of 2.12 million boxes, or 0.7%, from the September forecast of 309.34 million boxes. The update was issued Dec. 11 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with its partners.

The forecast, by varieties, is:

  • Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 58.09 million boxes (unchanged)
  • Other early season: 18.51 million boxes (unchanged)
  • Pera Rio: 97.62 million boxes (increased 1%)
  • Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha: 105.20 million boxes (decreased 0.03%)
  • Natal: 27.8 million boxes (decreased 9.8%)

In the current forecast update, considering all varieties, 255 fruits are needed to form a full box, representing an increase of eight fruits compared to the scenario forecast in May. This amount corresponds to oranges weighing 160 grams (5.64 ounces), in contrast to the average weight initially projected at 165 grams (5.82 ounces). If this projection is confirmed, the fruits will weigh less than the average of the last 10 years, which is 163 grams (5.75 ounces).

One factor contributing to oranges not reaching their projected sizes is the persistent below-average rainfall. Variation in fruit size is observed in regions with different severity levels of citrus greening, suggesting that the increased intensity of the disease is one of the factors affecting the growth of oranges.

Another impactful factor is the accelerated pace at which harvesting progresses, leading to a shorter period for fruit development. Mant oranges are harvested before the rainiest season of the year. Faster harvesting is emerging as a strategy to reduce the fruit drop rate, thus mitigating crop losses.


The projected fruit drop rate has been revised from 21% to 19% on average, considering all varieties.

Harvest reached 82% of production in mid-November, showing a much faster pace compared to previous years, when it was approximately 60% around the same time.

The harvest of the early varieties, including Hamlin, Westin and Rubi, has already been completed. The harvest of the other early varieties, including Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada, is almost over at 97%.

The Pera Rio harvest is 94% complete. The Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha harvest is 67% done, while Natal stands at 50%.

The next update to Brazil’s 2023–24 orange season will be published on Feb. 9.

Source: Fundecitrus

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