Worldwide Orange and OJ Production Declining

Daniel CooperFlorida Citrus Commission, Florida Department of Citrus, Production

Photo by kiboka/DepositPhotos image

Continuing low orange production in Florida has left Florida processors relying significantly on imports to meet the ongoing demand for orange juice (OJ), the Florida Citrus Commission (FCC) was told in June. Economist Marisa Zansler told the FCC that world juice availability is expected to decrease in the 2024–25 season, influenced by the decline in Brazilian production and reduced inventory levels. Zansler is director of economic and market research at the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), which is governed by the FCC.  

Despite the decline in production, the demand for Florida citrus products continues to be strong during the 2023–24 season, Zansler said. But she added that the reduction in overall availability means there will be a decline in U.S. consumption of OJ, grapefruit juice and fresh citrus products.

Other Florida citrus economic and market statistics that Zansler presented included: 

  • The fresh market in 2023–24 will utilize about 8.6% of Florida’s orange crop, 65% of its grapefruit production and 69% of its specialty fruit. This season, 90.8% of Florida oranges are going into processing. That percentage historically was closer to 95%. 
  • This season, year to date, total OJ gallons sold decreased by 13.42% whereas total OJ refrigerated not-from-concentrate (NFC) gallons are down by 0.36%. Total OJ refrigerated reconstituted OJ experienced a significant drop of 30.5% in gallons sold, and total grapefruit juice sales are down this season by 8%.
  • Total revenue from OJ sales are down this season by 5.39%. Total OJ refrigerated NFC has shown a slight increase in revenue of 1.07% with the NFC 50- to 70-ounce size category driving the most dollar sales at $864.2 million. Total grapefruit juice sales have decreased this season by 3.04%.
  • The price per equivalent OJ gallon went up to $9.44, a 9.27% increase over last year. The largest increase in price per equivalent gallon was seen in the refrigerated reconstituted OJ category, up 17.13% this season to $7.82.
  • Retail promotions for OJ have been lower than pre-2020 levels but are showing signs of recovery this year.

Source: FDOC

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