Fundecitrus and its cooperators issued the first update to Brazil’s 2024–25 orange crop forecast on Sept. 10. The forecast of 215.78 million boxes for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt is down 7.1% from the initial May forecast of 232.38 million boxes. With a total reduction of 16.6 million boxes, all varieties are expected to have lower production. The numbers by variety are as follows:
- Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 36.47 million boxes (1.8% decrease)
- Other early-season varieties: 14.89 million boxes (5.3% decrease)
- Pera Rio: 63.42 million boxes (10.6% decrease)
- Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha: 74.39 million boxes (8.8% decrease)
- Natal: 26.61 million boxes (1.4% decrease)
Additionally, it is estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in Brazil’s Triângulo Mineiro region.
The crop reduction is due to smaller fruit size, which is a direct consequence of the hot and dry weather. The weather conditions for the first four months of the crop season were worse than expected, with rainfall 31% lower, according to Climatempo data. High temperatures during the fall and winter intensified evapotranspiration, worsening the severity of the drought.
Higher temperatures also accelerated fruit ripening. This led to a faster harvest pace. Consequently, the orange development period is shorter, and more than half of the crop will be harvested under drought conditions.
The need to minimize losses caused by citrus greening also contributed to earlier harvest. As a result, by mid-August, about 45% of the crop had already been harvested, a significantly faster pace than in previous years when this percentage was around 30%.
Early harvest has a positive effect on reducing the fruit drop rate, mainly due to a reduction in the drop caused by greening. Initially projected at 18.5% in May, the fruit drop rate is now revised to 17.1%.
The average size of the harvested oranges will be smaller than originally estimated. In the current projection, 264 pieces of fruit will be required to fill a 90-pound box, which is 23 more pieces than estimated in May. The oranges are expected to weigh an average of 5.47 ounces, which is below the initial projection of 5.96 ounces. If confirmed, the average fruit weight will be less than last season (5.64 ounces).
Brazil’s next crop forecast update will be issued on Dec. 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
Share this Post
Sponsored Content