Fundecitrus and its cooperators released a second update to the 2024–25 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt. The Dec. 10 projection is 223.14 million 90-pound boxes. That’s an increase of 3.4% from September’s update but a 4% decrease from the initial May forecast of 232.38 million boxes.
The forecast by orange variety, with the variation from September in parentheses, is:
- Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 37.63 million boxes (3.2% increase)
- Other early season oranges: 15.4 million boxes (3.4% increase)
- Pera Rio: 72.51 million boxes (14.3% increase)
- Valencia and Folha Murcha: 71.87 million boxes (3.4% decrease)
- Natal: 25.73 million boxes (3.3% decrease)
Of the total forecast volume, 202.91 million boxes are from the first three blooms, while 20.23 million correspond to the fourth bloom. It is also estimated that around 14.79 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
RAINY SEASON REVITALIZES GROVES
The arrival of the rainy season revitalized the groves that had been affected by a drought. After 11 consecutive months of rainfall below the historical average from 1991 to 2020, the scenario began to change in October when rainfall volumes exceeded the historical average. That pattern of heavier-than-average rainfall remained in November.
MORE FRUIT DROP
The fruit drop rate for the citrus belt rose to 19% in the December forecast, up from the initially projected 18.5% in May and 17.1% in September. The fruit drop is mainly due to citrus greening disease and to mechanized operations, particularly pruning.
FRUIT WEIGHT
It is estimated that 261 fruits will be needed to fill a 90-pound box, which is three fruits less than previously estimated. Considering all blooms, the Pera Rio variety was the only one that showed an increase in fruit weight compared to the September projection. All other varieties showed size reductions.
FUTURE FORECASTS
The remaining forecast schedule for Brazil’s 2024–25 orange season is:
- Third crop forecast update: Feb. 10, 2025
- Final crop forecast: April 10, 2025
See the complete December orange forecast report for Brazil here.
Source: Fundecitrus
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