Orange prices in Brazil set record highs in 2024, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) in Brazil reported. According to CEPEA, the value of a 90-pound box was above BRL 100 ($16.63 U.S.) in the fresh market.
The record price is explained by firm demand from the industry, which faced low orange juice (OJ) stocks and limited orange production. Weather in Brazil’s Citrus Belt was predominantly dry with high temperatures during crop development.
Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs, which had already been high due to citrus greening disease. Profit margins may be reduced in areas where production dropped significantly, despite the record prices of the fruit.
CEPEA stated that São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million boxes of oranges in the 2024–25 season. That’s an increase of 7.36 million boxes, or 3.4%, from the September estimate, but still 9.24 million boxes, or 4% less, than the initial forecast in May. Therefore, the current season may be 27.4% smaller than the previous (2023–24) season, when 307.22 million boxes were harvested.
Smaller production was already expected in 2024–25, due to unfavorable weather conditions and citrus greening disease.
“The current scenario is very limited orange juice (OJ) stocks in Brazil,” CEPEA stated. “Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025–26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.”
CEPEA also stated that an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union can favor shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, and can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. The agreement is very important and brings good prospects for the mid- and long-term.
Additionally, CEPEA reported that Tahiti lime quotations were at low levels in the first half of 2024 but increased in the second part of the year.
Source: CEPEA
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