Fundecitrus and its cooperators released an orange crop forecast on Feb. 10. Total production is forecast to be 228.52 million boxes for 2024–25. This is a 2.4% increase from the December forecast of 223.14 million boxes, but a decrease of 1.7% from the season’s initial orange estimate that was released in May.
This forecast is for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt. It also is estimated that approximately 14.81 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Here is a breakdown of the February forecast by variety:
- Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 37.63 million boxes (unchanged)
- Other early-season varieties: 15.6 million boxes (1.3% increase)
- Pera Rio: 74.46 million boxes (2.7% increase)
- Valencia and Folha Murcha: 74.2 million boxes (3.2% increase)
- Natal: 26.63 million boxes (3.5% increase)
The gain in the forecast is a result of the reduction in the drop rate observed in the field and the growth of the fruits above that projected, especially those of the fourth bloom.
The projection of the fruit drop rate decreased to 18%, compared to 19% projected in December. This lower drop rate is related to the earlier fruit harvest from the first two blooms and the lower quantity of fruits on the trees compared to previous crops. Despite the slight reduction, the premature fruit drop rate remains at a significant level, mainly due to citrus greening, fruit flies, mechanized grove management operations and other factors.
The fruits of the fourth bloom registered an increase of 0.71 ounces compared to the December estimate, reaching 5.15 ounces. It is estimated that 258 fruits will be needed to make up a 40.8-kilogram box, three fruits less than previously estimated.
See the full February forecast report here.
Brazil’s final orange crop forecast of the 2024–25 season will be released on April 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
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