Fundecitrus and its cooperators released the final orange forecast of the 2024–25 season for Brazil on April 10. Final production in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt was 230.87 million 90-pound boxes of oranges, a 1% increase from the last forecast in February.
The 2024–25 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years. It was considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom and the incidence of citrus greening. The average Citrus Belt rainfall accumulated from May 2024 to March 2025 was in the low range, representing a 20% decrease compared to the historical average for the period 1991–2020.
Final production by variety, compared to the February forecast, was:
- Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 37.63 million boxes (unchanged)
- Other early-season varieties: 15.6 million boxes (unchanged)
- Pera Rio: 74.7 million boxes (0.3% increase)
- Valencia and Folha Murcha: 75.99 million boxes (2.4% increase)
- Natal: 26.95 million boxes (1.2% increase)
Of the total 2024–25 crop, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
This season’s production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 of 232.38 million boxes.
The fruit drop rate of Hamlin, Westin and Ruby was 10.6%. The other early varieties showed a slightly higher drop rate of 13.9%. The Pera Rio drop rate was 16.5%. The Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties had a higher drop rate of 21.6%. The Natal variety had the highest drop rate at 22.6%.
Production loss resulting from premature fruit drop was estimated at approximately 50 million boxes. The main reason for the production loss during this season was citrus greening, accounting for 25 million boxes that suffered premature drop.
See the full forecast update here.
Brazil’s first orange forecast for the 2025–26 season will be released on May 9.
Source: Fundecitrus
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