Fundecitrus and its cooperators on May 9 forecast the 2025–26 orange harvest in Brazil’s Citrus Belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro at 314.6 million boxes. That would be a 36.2% increase over the 2024–25 harvest of 230.87 million boxes.
The expected larger harvest is mainly attributed to more fruit per tree. The increased number of fruit is due to the favorable climate for the second flowering, better management of orchards and an increase in the number of productive trees.
The estimated average productivity for 2025–26 is 869 boxes per hectare and 1.72 boxes per tree. That’s a recovery from the significant productivity drop last season, when production was 687 boxes per hectare and 1.37 boxes per tree.
VARIETY BREAKDOWN
Production by variety is forecast at:
- 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties (up 31.49% from the prior season)
- 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (up 27.31%)
- 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (up 21.16%)
- 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (up 50.78%)
- 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (up 49.05%).
FRUIT DROP
The projected drop rate for the 2025–26 harvest is 20%, which is 2.2% higher than the previous harvest. This projection is related to the increased severity of citrus greening and the later harvest.
MORE TREES
Fundecitrus recently updated tree inventory data, which maps the entire Citrus Belt. There are 182.7 million productive trees, occupying 362,000 hectares. That’s an increase of 12.7 million trees (7.5%) and 18,000 hectares (5.2%) over the previous census in 2022.
The Harvest Estimate Survey is being carried out under the statistical supervision of São Paulo State University Professor José Carlos Barbosa.
See the full report on Brazil’s 2025–26 orange forecast here.
Source: Fundecitrus