Brazil’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) recently reported that the volume of Brazilian orange juice (OJ) exported in 2024–25 was historically small, but revenues set a record.
CEPEA stated there was limited production of high-quality Brazilian oranges in 2024–25. As a result, the juice industry had difficulty producing juice that is compatible to standards required by international consumers. The low supply of OJ in the international market boosted prices.
In the 2024–25 season running from July 2024 to June 2025, Brazil exported almost 777,000 tons of OJ. That’s 22.7% less than in the prior season and the lowest amount since 1997. But revenue resulting from the high prices led to a 28.4% increase in revenue compared to the 2023–24 season, setting a record of $3.48 billion.
“If, on one hand, high values boosted the profitability, on the other, they limited the consumption, especially due to the low quality of the product,” CEPEA stated.
2025–26 SEASON EXPECTATIONS
The expectation for the 2025–26 season is for shipments to regain pace, as inventories of high-quality juice increase and part of the demand from abroad is firm again.
Fundecitrus and its cooperators on May 9 forecast the 2025–26 orange harvest in Brazil’s Citrus Belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro at 314.6 million boxes. That would be a 36.2% increase over the 2024–25 harvest of 230.87 million boxes.
The expected larger harvest is mainly attributed to more fruit per tree. The increased number of fruit is due to the favorable climate for the second flowering, better management of orchards and an increase in the number of productive trees. Learn more about the 2025–26 orange crop forecast here.
CONSUMPTION AND TARIFF IMPACT
CEPEA reported that some agents fear that the demand from abroad may not be firm in the coming season due to stagnation of consumption and/or the still undefined effects of the U.S. tariff increase on products from Brazil.
Source: CEPEA
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