On Sept. 10, Brazil reduced the 2025–26 orange forecast for the São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt by 2.5% from the season’s initial forecast, to 306.74 million boxes. This was the first revised forecast issued by Fundecitrus since May.
The reduction was mainly due to the increased projected fruit drop rate, which was a result of the increased severity of citrus greening and the slower harvest pace.
FRUIT DROP AND GREENING
The fruit drop rate in September was estimated at 22%, up from 20% in the May forecast. The drop rate is more intense in sectors with a high incidence of greening (South, Center and Southwest) and less intense in sectors with a lower incidence (North and Northwest).
Fundecitrus Executive Director Juliano Ayres noted that the average severity of greening in the Citrus Belt rose from 19% in 2024 to 22.7% in 2025. “This significant increase in the severity of symptoms on trees has a direct impact on the rate of premature fruit drop, being the determining factor in the crop reduction in this first re-estimate,” Ayres said.
SLOWER HARVEST
By mid-August, only 25% of the current crop had been harvested. Approximately 50% of the crop had been harvested at this point in the prior season. The early varieties (Hamlin, Westin and Rubi) had reached 68% harvested by mid-August, while the other early varieties reached 75%. The Pera harvest reached 17%. The late varieties (Valencia and Folha Murcha) harvests totaled 1%, and Natal, 2%.
The later harvest of this season is related to the high concentration of fruit from the second bloom and the prioritization of harvesting at the ideal ripening point to obtain better quality juice. This leads to an increase in the rate of premature fruit drop, especially on trees affected by greening and subjected to greater water deficits and milder winter temperatures.
See the complete September forecast here. The second orange forecast update of the 2025–26 season will be published Dec. 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
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