Fundecitrus’ Dec. 10 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt in Brazil is for 294.81 million boxes of oranges. That’s a reduction of 3.9% from the September forecast of 306.74 million boxes and a 6.3% reduction from the initial May forecast of 314.6 million boxes.
The two main reasons for the reduction in the crop are the decrease in fruit size and the increase in the projected fruit drop rate from 22% to 23%. The decrease in fruit size is due to scarcity of rain. The increase in fruit drop is due to the increased severity of greening disease, the pace of harvesting and the prevailing weather conditions.
FRUIT SIZE CHANGES
Considering the average of all varieties, oranges will be harvested with 4 grams less weight than what was projected in September. Consequently, the average number of oranges needed to fill a 40.8-kilogram box increases from 258 to 265.
For the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties, and for the group of other early varieties, the number of fruit per box remains stable at 305 fruits per box and 272 fruits per box, respectively. The Pera variety, which was projected at 261 fruit per box, is now 267 fruit per box. The quantity of oranges per box for the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties increases from 235 fruit per box to 248. The Natal variety was revised from 242 to 248 fruit per box.
CITRUS GREENING AND FRUIT DROP
The average severity of citrus greening in the Citrus Belt, which jumped from 19% in 2024 to 22.7% in 2025, reduced the productive potential of the orchards by approximately 35%. That’s the main explanation for the increase in the projected fruit drop rate in the latest forecast.
“The disease growth rate has been decreasing, but the average severity is increasing,” said Fundecitrus Executive Director Juliano Ayres. “Today, 26.5% of orange trees with greening show symptoms in more than 75% of the canopy. When this spread of greening through the tree canopies is combined with water deficit, the rate of fruit drop tends to increase.”
The pace of harvesting and the weather also contributed to the increase in fruit drop. To reach ideal maturity and be harvested at their best, the fruit remained on the trees longer. In addition, atypical strong winds were recorded in September throughout the Citrus Belt, with gusts of 50 to 90 kilometers per hour. Combined with the water deficit, the winds contributed to the increased fruit drop.
Brazil’s crop estimate survey is conducted by Fundecitrus in partnership with Professor Emeritus José Carlos Barbosa of São Paulo State University.
See the full Dec. 10 orange forecast report here.
Source: Fundecitrus