The Feb. 10 forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro region is 292.6 million boxes of oranges. That’s a 0.7% reduction from the Dec. 10 forecast of 294.81 million boxes, and a 7% reduction from the initial forecast of the season on May 9 of 314.6 million boxes.
The reduction is due to a decrease in the average size of late-variety oranges. This includes Valencia, Folha Murcha and Natal.
LOW RAINFALL
By mid-January, 87% of the crop had been harvested, with an average weight of 153 grams per fruit — 1 gram below the previous projection. The reduction was attributed to late-maturing varieties that did not show expected growth due to a lack of rain. From May 2025 to January 2026, the average accumulated rainfall was 10% lower than the historical average from 1991 to 2020.
Only in the southern regions (Porto Ferreira and Limeira) was the accumulated rainfall recorded from January to May higher than the average for the region. In the other 10 regions of the Citrus Belt, rainfall was lower than the historical average.
HIGH DROP RATE
The projection for the premature fruit drop rate was maintained at 23% in the February forecast. This is the highest value recorded over 11 harvests and is associated with the increased severity of citrus greening. The fruit drop percentage remains 16.9% for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi; 18.5% for other early varieties; 22% for Pera; 25.6% for the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties; and 28.5% for Natal.
The fruit drop rate follows the incidence and severity of citrus greening, being more intense in the south, central and southwest sectors and less intense in the northwest and, especially, north sectors.
MORE ON THE FORECAST
See the full February forecast report here.
The final forecast for Brazil’s 2025–26 season will be released on April 10.
Brazil’s citrus crop estimate survey is conducted by Fundecitrus in partnership with Professor José Carlos Barbosa (retired) from the School of Agricultural and Veterinary Studies at São Paulo State University.
Source: Fundecitrus