Fundecitrus on April 10 reported the final forecast for the 2025–26 orange crop for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt. The forecast is for 292.94 million 90-pound boxes. Of the total, about 25.69 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Production this season was 26.9% higher than the previous crop, which reached 230.87 million boxes. This season’s production was 6.9% lower than the initial forecast released in May 2025.
FORECAST BY VARIETY
The final forecast by variety was for:
- 46.23 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties
- 17.65 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties
- 87.44 million boxes of the Pera mid-season variety
- 104.53 million boxes of Valencia and Folha Murcha late-season varieties
- 37.09 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety
DELAYED HARVEST
Climatic and phytosanitary factors, within the context of a more delayed harvest, contributed to higher fruit drop rates and to reduced fruit weight compared to the initial forecast.
The 2025–26 crop was marked by a later harvest pace compared to previous crop seasons due to the high proportion of second-bloom fruit and to harvesting at optimal maturity.
FRUIT DROP AND RAINFALL IMPACTS
The premature fruit drop rate in this crop reached the highest level observed over the past 11 crop seasons. This was driven by increased citrus greening severity, higher incidence of citrus leprosis, water deficit and the occurrence of strong wind gusts throughout the production cycle.
The average accumulated rainfall in the Citrus Belt from May 2025 to March 2026 represented a 13% deficit compared to the historical average (1991–2020).
See the full forecast here.
The orange crop forecast and tree inventory for the 2026–27 season will be released on May 8.
Source: Fundecitrus
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