A developing El Niño is one reason the number of storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could be near to below historical averages, AccuWeather reported recently.
AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. The historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States throughout the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. A direct impact to land can occur even if a storm doesn’t make landfall. Impacts can include tropical-storm-force winds reaching land, flooding rain from a storm just offshore or a storm surge of at least 2 feet along the coast. The areas of the United States at greatest risk of direct impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane in 2026 are the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas.
EARLY START TO STORMS POSSIBLE
Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on the weeks before and just after the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
With warm waters firmly in place in the areas where storms typically develop early in the season, it may not take much to have tropical activity fire up around the same time that the season officially gets underway.
THE EL NIÑO FACTOR
There is about a 15% chance that a super El Niño will develop if ocean temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above long-term averages. If this happens, it could sharply reduce storm activity in late October and November, according to AccuWeather.
The last time there was an El Niño during the Atlantic hurricane season was 2023, which was busier than normal with 20 named storms, above the historical average of 14.
2025 SEASON SUMMARY
The 2025 hurricane season was close to the historical average in terms of the number of storms, but it featured three Category 5 hurricanes, just one shy of the all-time record of four. Additionally, most of the tropical activity occurred after Sept. 10, the climatological peak of the hurricane season.
See the full AccuWeather forecast here. For comparison, see the 2026 hurricane forecast from Colorado State University here.
Source: AccuWeather
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