Brazil’s Fundecitrus on May 8 forecast 2026–27 orange crop production for the Citrus Belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais region at 255.2 million 40.8-kilogram boxes. That’s a 12.9% reduction from the previous crop of 292.94 million boxes and a 14.7% decline relative to the average of the last decade.
REASONS FOR LESS ORANGES
The projection for lower production stems from the natural year-to-year fluctuation in orchard productivity, a reduction in the number of fruit per tree and an increase in the rate of premature fruit drop. Those negative impacts outweigh the positive effects of heavier fruit weights and an expanded number of productive trees.
According to data from the Crop Estimate Survey (PES), climatic conditions and irrigation availability played a decisive role in the profile of the blooms and in production performance. Among other factors, a drought in May 2025 caused water stress in the plants.
“This is a crop season impacted by climatic variability and increased pressure from greening disease, with repercussions on fruit set, crop load and fruit drop rates,” said Juliano Ayres, executive director of Fundecitrus.
The most recent disease survey conducted by Fundecitrus in September 2025 indicated that greening had affected 47.6% of the orange trees within the Citrus Belt.
The estimated average productivity stands at 697 boxes per hectare, a 13.8% decline from the previous season. Every variety analyzed showed a decrease in yield.
In addition to the lower number of fruit per tree, the rate of premature fruit drop — projected at 23.7% — and a total fruit loss rate of 31.3% also contributed to the productivity decline.
ABOUT THE SURVEY
The survey leading to the forecast encompassed 2,560 trees, distributed across various regions, varieties and age groups, thereby ensuring statistical representation of the Citrus Belt.
“Production continues to be monitored by Fundecitrus, and the estimate may be adjusted throughout the season — particularly in light of fruit drop rates and the final size of the oranges,” said PES manager Guilherme Rodriguez.
The PES is conducted by Fundecitrus in partnership with José Carlos Barbosa, retired São Paulo State University professor.
See the executive summary of Brazil’s orange crop forecast here.
Source: Fundecitrus
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