Photo by NOAA Satellites
Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service on May 21 predicted a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Its outlook is for a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 miles per hour or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence rate in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal. Trade winds are likely to be weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is not a landfall forecast.
See the earlier 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by Colorado State University and AccuWeather.
Source: NOAA
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