Shifts in the international geopolitical landscape, rising logistics costs, sanitary barriers and currency fluctuations are directly impacting Brazil’s fruit industry, including citrus. The effects of these transformations were discussed during a recent edition of the Socioeconomics Debates series, hosted by Embrapa, under the theme, Brazil’s Fruit Industry: How Global Crises Impact What Reaches Your Table. Researchers, economists and production representatives discussed key challenges facing Brazil’s fruit industry.
Francisco Laranjeira, head of Embrapa Cassava and Fruits, highlighted challenges to Brazil’s fruit industry, including fruit consumption, which is considered low in Brazil and globally.
Laranjeira cited citrus greening, grapevine canker and the carambola fruit fly as threats to the national fruit industry.
Felipe Serigati, economist and researcher at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), analyzed the impacts of the war involving Iran and Israel on the global economy and Brazilian agribusiness. He said the war exerts upward pressure on inflation and diminishes the prospects for a reduction in interest rates. “The agricultural sector was already grappling with a landscape of high indebtedness, and the war involving Iran only exacerbates this,” he stated.
Serigati said international conflicts have triggered a rise in oil prices, impacting fuel and fertilizer costs and driving up agricultural production expenses.
Serigati issued a warning regarding the potential resurgence of protectionist measures by the United States. “Sooner or later, we are bound to face a scenario in which some form of tariffs makes a comeback,” Serigati said.
Researcher Margarete Boteon, from the University of São Paulo’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics, highlighted the challenging period the citrus industry faces.
Boteon said when the announcement of the massive tariff hike came last year, it was truly a bombshell for Brazilian citrus. But she added that “it was well known that there was no alternative source available to supply the United States.” Consequently, within a short time, orange juice became one of the first products exempted from additional tariffs. Eight of every 10 glasses of orange juice consumed globally are Brazilian.
To Boteon, phytosanitary issues represent an even greater shock than the crises stemming from geopolitical conflicts.
“There is no room for maneuver; you cannot simply cut back on investments this year just because prices are lower, because you have a disease (citrus greening) that must be kept in check,” Boteon stated. “If you fail to carry out the appropriate sanitary treatments, you end up with no production.”
Boteon also expressed concern regarding the decline in international orange juice consumption and regulatory measures being adopted in Europe, such as proposals to restrict the inclusion of fruit juices in school meal programs.
According to Boteon, the citrus industry is facing a landscape of profound uncertainty, characterized by high inventory levels, weakened demand and a growing need for efficiency gains.
Source: Embrapa
Share this Post