The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) of Southern Africa has lowered its South African citrus export forecast for the 2026 season. The association now estimates export volume of 205.3 million 15-kilogram cartons, down from the 209.4 million cartons projected before the season began.
The adjustment is primarily due to lower export outlooks for mandarins, navel oranges and grapefruit. On the other hand, lemon exports are performing better than initially expected.
MANDARINS
For mandarins, the export estimate has been reduced by 2.7 million cartons. Harvesting of the Nova and Leanri varieties has already concluded, while packing operations are now focusing on late-season varieties such as Orri, Nadorcott and Tango.
NAVELS
Navel oranges saw the largest forecast adjustment, with a reduction of 4.6 million cartons compared to the estimate published in March. According to the CGA, higher rainfall in the Eastern Cape favored the development of larger fruit sizes. To date, approximately 75% of the crop has been packed, with fewer than 6 million cartons of late navel varieties remaining.
VALENCIAS
The forecast for Valencia oranges remains virtually unchanged. Higher yields in the northern regions have offset lower production in the Eastern and Western Cape. Additionally, juice processing plants are absorbing significant volumes of fruit.
GRAPEFRUIT
The grapefruit forecast has been lowered by 1.7 million cartons.
LEMONS
The export forecast for lemons rose by 5.4 million cartons compared to the initial estimate. The season has already concluded in most growing areas. In the Eastern Cape — the primary production region — some packhouses report having less than 10% of their fruit left to process.
CHALLENGES
The season has entered its peak citrus export period, placing strain on port infrastructure. The CGA has specifically highlighted the situation at the Port of Durban, where operational delays have been reported. These logistical issues are compounded by difficulties that have impacted the season in growing regions. Flooding in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape — particularly in the Patensie area — has affected the course of the season.
The citrus industry also continues to face rising production costs, as well as market conditions and price levels that make profitability difficult for citrus growers.
The international situation presents another source of pressure for South African exports. The war in the Middle East is hindering citrus trade with the region, which traditionally receives around 20% of South Africa’s exports. The conflict is complicating supply chains and driving up costs for logistics, fuel and shipping. It is also resulting in longer transit times and reduced demand in other markets.
The CGA has also expressed concern regarding a potential spread of the conflict to the Red Sea and possible disruptions at the Port of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s main port terminal. Such scenarios could impact shipping routes and limit the trade options available to South African exporters.
Source: Valencia Fruits
Share this Post