Final U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast Down 17 Percent from Last Season

Candi Erick

Candi Erick, the agricultural statistics administrator with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, reports the final citrus crop forecast of the 2016-17 season.

The United States all-orange forecast for the 2016-2017 season is down 2 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The 2016-2017 Florida all-orange forecast released by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is now at 68.7 million boxes (3.09 million tons), is up 200,000 boxes from last month but down 16 percent from last season’s final utilization. The total comprises 33 million boxes (1.49 million tons) of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason and Navel varieties), unchanged from last month but down 9 percent from last season’s final utilization, and 35.7 million boxes (1.61 million tons) of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes (1 percent) from last month but down 22 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The forecast of all-Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 7.8 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 1.5 million boxes are white and 6.3 million boxes are the red varieties.

The Florida tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 1.62 million boxes. The forecast includes 600,000 boxes of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst), 210,000 boxes of Royal tangerines, 530,000 boxes of Honey tangerines and 280,000 boxes of tangelos.

The Florida frozen concentrated orange juice final yield for the 2016-2017 season is 1.4 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month but up 1 percent from last season. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.3 gallons per box, down 1 percent from last season’s final yield. The Valencia portion is final at 1.5 gallons per box, unchanged from last month but up 5 percent from last year’s final yield.

Florida forecast:

The California Navel orange forecast is 40 million boxes (1.6 million tons), down 7 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from last season’s final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8 million boxes (320,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 29 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The Texas all-orange forecast, at 1.37 million boxes (58,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 19 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Forecast for all states: