Crop Forecast Sees Changes for Grapefruit, Tangerines and Mandarins

Mark Hudson of the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service issued the April 2017 citrus crop forecast.

ORANGES
The U.S. all-orange forecast for the 2016-2017 season is 5.11 million tons, down 1 percent from last month and down 16 percent from the 2015-2016 revised final utilization.

The Florida all-orange forecast, at 67 million boxes (3.02 million tons), is unchanged from last month, but down 18 percent from last season’s revised final utilization.

The California Valencia orange forecast is 8 million boxes (320,000 tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast, but down 29 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 43 million boxes (1.72 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season’s revised final utilization.

The Texas all-orange forecast, at 1.37 million boxes (59,000 tons), is down 24 percent from the previous forecast and down 19 percent from last season’s final utilization.

GRAPEFRUIT
The U.S. 2016-2017 grapefruit crop is forecast at 685,000 tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 8.10 million boxes (345,000 tons), is down 9 percent from last month and down 25 percent from last year. California’s grapefruit production forecast is unchanged from last year, while Texas grapefruit production is down 100,000 boxes from last year.

TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 958,000 tons, down 3 percent from last month, but up 1 percent from last season’s revised final utilization if tangelos were included. If realized, this will be the largest production since records began in 1964-1965. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast is down 4 percent from the previous forecast, but up 2 percent from last year’s revised final utilization. The Florida forecast is up 10 percent from last month, but down 9 percent from 2015-2016, if tangelos were included. Beginning in 2016-2017, tangerine and mandarin estimates in Florida include tangelos.

Florida Citrus Crop Forecast:

Full Citrus Crop Forecast:

USDA/NASS Citrus Maturity Test Results and Fruit Size form (.pdf)

The May citrus crop forecast will be Wednesday, May 10, 2017, at approximately 12 noon. You will be able to hear the forecast here on Citrus Industry.

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