florida citrus

June Citrus Forecast: Oranges Up; Tangerines Down

Daniel Cooper Citrus, Crop Forecast

florida orange crop forecastThe 2016-2017 Florida all-orange forecast released by Mark Hudson of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is up 500,000 boxes to 68.5 million boxes. The increase is in Valencia oranges. The total includes 33 million boxes of non-Valencias (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35.5 million boxes of Valencias.

For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the June all-orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 1 percent, with 2 seasons above and 8 below, and differences ranging from 2 percent below to 1 percent above.

Hear the complete forecast:

The all-grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 7.8 million boxes, including an allocation for non-certified use. The row count survey shows nearly all grapefruit rows included in the survey are harvested.

The forecast of all tangerine and tangelos is lowered 10,000 boxes to 1.62 million boxes. The forecast includes 600,000 boxes of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst), 210,000 boxes of Royal tangerines, 530,000 boxes of Honey tangerines and 280,000 boxes of tangelos.

The early portion of the tangerine forecast is final. A 10,000-box reduction was made in the Royal tangerine forecast based on utilization. The row count survey conducted May 30-31, 2017, indicated harvest near completion for the Royal and Honey tangerine varieties.

The tangelo portion of the forecast is final at 280,000 boxes. The row count survey showed harvest is over for this variety.

The frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), Report No. 34, for the period ending May 27, 2017, is 1.42 gallons per box of 42° Brix concentrate. The late component yield is 1.54 gallons per box. The final yield for non-Valencia oranges is 1.336596 gallons per box as reported by the FDOC in Report No. 21.

USDA/NASS Citrus Maturity Test Results and Fruit Size form 

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