Brazil Issues Orange Forecast Update

Jim Rogers Brazil, Crop Forecast

An orange forecast update for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is for 314.09 million boxes, a decrease of 2.86 million boxes or 0.9% from the original May forecast. The update was issued by Fundecitrus.

orange forecast
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All of the decrease is in the early-season orange varieties. The forecast for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi oranges is now 57.1 million boxes, down 4% from May. Other early-season varieties are forecast at 17.04 million boxes, down 2.7%. The varieties for which the forecast is unchanged are Pera Rio at 93.95 million boxes, Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha at 106.78 million boxes, and Natal at 39.22 million boxes.

The reason for the reduction is the low rainfall volume in recent months. The average rainfall in the citrus belt accumulated from May to August was 84 millimeters, which is 48% below the climatological norm from 1981 to 2010. Drier and hotter weather than normal was observed in all regions from May to August.

Lower rainfall volume affected fruit growth. Average fruit weight for the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties is now projected at 4.62 ounces per fruit, down from 4.8 ounces in May. The average weight of other early varieties is now 5.4 ounces per fruit, down from 5.54 ounces in May. Fruit size for other varieties remains unchanged because the data is insufficient due to the low volume of fruit harvested so far.

The projected fruit drop rate for all varieties was decreased from 20% in May to 19.8% now. The drop rate is projected at 10.8% for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi oranges, and at 11% for other early varieties. Projected drop rates for later season varieties are 21.7% for Pera Rio, 23.5% for Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha, and 23.5% for Natal.

See Brazil’s full orange forecast update here.

Source: Fundecitrus

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