Brazil’s Initial Orange Forecast for 2023–24

Tacy CalliesBrazil, Crop Forecast

orange forecast

The 2023–2024 initial orange forecast for Brazil’s citrus belt is 309.34 million boxes. The forecast was announced on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The projected volume is 1.55% less than the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes.

Fundecitrus reported that weather conditions are positive for the 2023–24 crop with rains being 50% above the historical average. However, Asian citrus psyllid populations and citrus greening incidence continue to increase in Brazil.

The orange production forecast for 2023–2024 includes:

  • 56.11 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi
  • 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada
  • 98.95 million boxes of Pera Rio
  • 105.23 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha
  • 30.83 million boxes of Natal

Average yield this crop season is estimated at 918 boxes per hectare, up slightly from last season’s 912 boxes per hectare. Average fruit per tree is down 4.9% this season, dropping from 668 in 2022–23 to 635 in 2023–24.

The average fruit weight is expected to be 165 grams, up from last season’s 159 grams. It is estimated that it will take 247 fruits to fill a 90-pound box.

Bloom projections for the 2023-24 season are as follows:

  • First bloom: 36%
  • Second bloom: 46%
  • Third bloom: 16%
  • Fourth bloom: 2%

An earlier and faster crop is expected this season, which favors fruit drop. The estimated fruit drop rate is 21%, similar to last season. The fruit drop rate is due in large part to the increase in citrus greening.

According to the Fundecitrus report, bearing trees total 169.29 million and occupy an area of 337,091 hectares in this crop season. These figures represent a decrease in the production area of 2.12%, evidencing the effect of the higher planting density in the last year.

Source: Fundecitrus