Worldwide availability of orange juice (OJ) has declined by 10% to 12% this season (2022–23) compared to the prior season, economist Marisa Zansler told the Florida Citrus Commission (FCC) in June. Zansler is the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) director of economic and market research. The FCC is the FDOC’s governing board.
In the 2022–23 season, frozen concentrated OJ availability is projected to decline 13%, and single-strength availability is projected to decline by at least 7%, Zansler said. About 66% to 68% of total OJ is retail consumption.
From October 2022 through May 2023, total OJ retail prices have increased 12.5% while volume movement is down by 11%, Zansler reported. The not-from-concentrate category has a 9% increase in price, aligned with a 6% decrease in total volume movement. Due to the decline in overall availability, the total reconstituted OJ price is up by 14.52% while movement is down by 17.97%.
Overall, inflation is beginning to moderate. However, in the grocery category, there is still high persistent inflation, Zansler stated. In April 2023, inflation was down by 4.9%. During the 12-month period, OJ’s price was up 12.5%.
Total OJ gallons sold on promotion are comparatively lower than pre-2020, Zansler reported. The promotion price of $8.32 is up by 12.1% for the period ending May 20, 2023, which is a 1.6% increase over last season’s non-promotional price of $8.19. The non-promotional price of $9.06 is up by 10.6%. Zansler said a decline in retail promotions means there’s a higher volume selling at the non-promotional price.
Even in the face of reduced supply, promotions and advertisement of OJ are important, according to Zansler. She said positioning media around positive perceptions of OJ is still crucial so that consumers are willing to continue to purchase OJ.
The leading perception that consumers have about OJ is that it’s a natural source of vitamins and minerals. However, Zansler said taste is the main reason consumers buy OJ. Another leading reason for purchasing it is health and wellness.
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