Brazil Citrus Season Nears End

Daniel CooperBrazil, Crop Forecast


The Feb. 9 forecast for the 2023–24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt of Brazil is unchanged from December 2023 at 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. This represents a reduction of 0.7% when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The February forecast by variety, published by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is as follows:

  • Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 58.09 million boxes
  • Other early season varieties: 18.51 million boxes
  • Pera Rio: 97.62 million boxes
  • Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha: 105.20 million boxes
  • Natal: 27.8 million boxes

The projected fruit drop rate remains at 19% on average, considering all varieties. In the distribution of the drop rate among the varieties, the early Hamlin, Westin and Rubi ended up at 10.8%. The other early varieties had a drop rate of 12.1%. Pera Rio recorded 19% drop. Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha remained at 22%, and the Natal variety at 28.9%.


Harvest reached 95% of production by mid-January, indicating a faster harvest pace compared to previous years when harvest was around 88% complete at the same time. The harvest of early varieties, including Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada, has already been completed. Pera Rio’s harvest is at 98%. Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha are at 90%. Natal is at 88%.


The average accumulated precipitation in the citrus belt from May 2023 to January 2024 was 668 millimeters, marking a significant reduction of 30% compared to the climatological norm of 1991–2020. Except for the Votuporanga region, all regions of the citrus belt experienced rain volumes below the historical average.

The final forecast of the Brazil citrus season will be issued on April 10.

Source: Fundecitrus

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