Final Orange Forecast for Brazil’s 2023–24 Season

Daniel CooperBrazil, Crop Forecast


Fundecitrus and its cooperators published the final orange production forecast on April 10 for the 2023–24 crop season in Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt. The forecast calls for 307.22 million 90-pound boxes of oranges, unchanged from the February forecast.

The final forecast by variety is:

  • 58.09 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties
  • 18.51 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties
  • 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety
  • 105.2 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties
  • 27.8 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety

The season’s production was 2.2% lower than the prior year’s crop of 314.21 million boxes. Determining factors for the production decrease included a precipitation deficit, the worsening of citrus greening and a hastened harvest pace that shortened the oranges’ development period.

These conditions resulted in fruits smaller than expected, particularly for mid-season and late varieties. Although the accelerated harvest pace posed challenges to fruit growth, it did yield a positive outcome by reducing losses attributed to premature fruit drop. However, the fruit drop rate remained above historical levels, mainly due to the impact of greening.

The drop rate for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi was 10.8%. The other early varieties had a slightly higher drop rate of 12.1%. Pera Rio had a drop rate of 19%, while Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties had a higher drop rate of 22%. The Natal variety had the highest drop rate, at 28.9%.

Production loss, resulting from premature fruit drop, was estimated at approximately 72 million boxes. The main reason for the production loss this season was greening, contributing 8.35% (of the total 19%), which represents 32 million boxes that dropped prematurely. Next, with 5.05%, came the fruit borer and the fruit fly, together resulting in an estimated loss of 19 million boxes.

The initial orange crop forecast and tree inventory for the 2024–25 season will be released on May 10.

Source: Fundecitrus

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