The 2024–25 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is 232.38 million 90-pound boxes. The projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36% as compared to the previous crop of 307.22 million boxes.
VARIETY BREAKDOWN
Production by variety is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production compared to the 2023–24 crop):
• 37.12 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi (-36.10%)
• 15.72 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada (-15.07%)
• 70.97 million boxes of Pera Rio (-27.3%)
• 81.58 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha (-22.45%)
• 26.99 million boxes of Natal (-2.91%).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region (-47.48%).
While the forecast is substantially down from the 2023–24 season, it is close to the average harvest for the last decade. Should this forecast hold true, it will be the second smallest crop since 1988–89, when forecasts using the objective method began to be performed in Brazil’s citrus belt.
CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Climate is the main cause for the drop in production. This season, the combination of high temperatures, high evapotranspiration rates and an intense water shortage during the crucial period of flowering and fruit setting resulted in a low number of fruits per tree. The forecast of drier weather over the next six months is expected to continue impacting the crop. This will further hinder fruit growth and increase the challenge of keeping groves supplied with water, even where irrigation systems are installed.
FRUIT WEIGHT AND NUMBER PER TREE
The projected weight of oranges at harvest is 5.96 ounces (241 fruits per box), representing an increase of 6% as compared to the average weight of 5.64 ounces recorded in the previous crop (255 fruits per box) and 4% above the average weight of the last 10 crops (5.73 ounces, resulting in 251 fruits per box).
The average number of fruits per tree in April 2024, without considering the drop that occurs throughout the season, is 453, which represents a decrease of 28.66% compared to the previous crop.
FRUIT DROP AND OTHER FACTORS
Although this crop has a smaller volume of fruit to be harvested, and a high proportion of fruit from the first bloom, the early fruit drop rate is expected to remain high and is projected at 18.5%. The main reason for this is the increased intensity of citrus greening.
Other factors that are expected to continue impacting this season are:
- Fruit fly and fruit borer attack
- Fruit peel cracking
- Fruit drop caused by mechanical damage resulting from frequent machinery movement in plots with a high density of plants.
YIELD AND BEARING TREES
The average yield this season is 691 boxes per hectare and 1.38 boxes per tree, a decrease of 24.14% as compared to the 911 boxes per hectare and 1.81 boxes per tree harvested in the 2023–24 crop.
Bearing trees total 168.54 million and occupy an area of 336,267 hectares in this crop season. These figures represent a decrease of 748,000 trees.
See Brazil’s full orange crop forecast report here.
Source: Fundecitrus
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