By Marisa L. Zansler
One-hundred percent orange juice (OJ) has long been a favorite in American households, but supply challenges, changing consumer behaviors, a crowded beverage category and higher prices have impacted how much OJ consumers buy. Recent research conducted by Sungeun Yoon sheds light on consumer price sensitivity and substitution behaviors within the category, offering actionable insights for growers, marketers and retailers. Yoon is an assistant research scientist with the Florida Agricultural Market Research Center in the University of Florida’s Food and Resource Economics Department.
MARKET CHALLENGES
The U.S. OJ market has faced significant challenges over the last decade, including reduced domestic production due to citrus greening disease, hurricanes and urbanization. To make up for these losses, Florida processors now import oranges from countries like Brazil and Mexico. However, these suppliers also face shortages. With fewer oranges available, prices have increased, and many consumers are buying cheaper alternatives or reducing OJ consumption.
In recent years, U.S. OJ production has fallen to historic lows. For example, after Hurricane Ian in 2022 caused substantial losses in Florida’s groves, supplies of 100% orange juice products, such as not-from-concentrate (NFC) and reconstituted (recon), tightened significantly. These supply constraints, coupled with rising inflation, saw prices of OJ products rise considerably.
HOW PRICE AFFECTS BUYING HABITS
Yoon’s study analyzed price elasticity using Nielsen sales data and the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model, revealing notable trends:
- Own-price elasticity: Demand for NFC and recon is elastic, with a 1% price increase reducing demand by 1.68% and 1.74%, respectively.
- Cross-price elasticity: Consumers frequently substitute between NFC and recon based on price changes. A 1% price rise in NFC leads to a 1.17% increase in recon demand, while the reverse effect is smaller at 0.51%.
This shows that many shoppers are looking for the best deal, especially as prices rise. Recon is seen as the more affordable option, so its demand changes more sharply with price increases.
Recent data shows how these trends are playing out: From 2022–23 to 2023–24, recon prices increased by 17%, while NFC prices rose less sharply by 1.7%. During this time, sales for recon fell sharply due to its higher price sensitivity, while NFC sales slightly increased because its price rose more modestly. When NFC prices rise, however, people quickly switch to recon. Although, when recon prices increase, fewer consumers return to buying NFC, which reinforces NFC’s position as a premium product.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FLORIDA OJ
These findings suggest several strategies for Florida’s OJ industry. First, NFC should be marketed as a premium product that highlights its quality and freshness, appealing to consumers who are less concerned about price. Meanwhile, recon could be promoted as a value product through increased retail trade promotions, showing it as an affordable option without frequent price increases.
It’s also essential to maintain a small price gap between NFC and recon to encourage more consumers to see NFC as worth the extra cost and recon as a budget-friendly item. Additionally, promoting the health and wellness aspects of 100% orange juice continues to be essential and can help increase demand for both NFC and recon.
Finally, transparency about rising prices, such as communicating supply shortages, can help maintain customer loyalty even during inflationary periods. Managing consumer expectations about supply and price should help ease consumers’ concerns about their budgets.
As the OJ market continues to evolve, it’s crucial to understand how consumers respond to price changes and what they value in OJ. These insights will help growers, processors and marketers develop more effective strategies to support the long-term sustainability of the industry. As price sensitivity becomes a growing concern, future research should also examine additional factors — such as the impact of promotions, wellness trends and supply-chain disruptions — to provide a comprehensive view of market dynamics. A continued, coordinated approach to consumer awareness — emphasizing 100% OJ’s role in immune support, hydration and overall wellness — can help reclaim consumer mindshare.
Looking ahead, long-run growth depends on revitalizing Florida production. As the industry continues its strategic reinvestment, replanting groves with disease-tolerant citrus varieties can help rebuild supply and improve yield stability. Supporting grower profitability through research, cost-share programs and improved access to capital will be essential to incentivize long-term production. A stable and growing domestic supply not only reduces reliance on imports but also strengthens Florida’s leadership in the global citrus market — ensuring a reliable source of 100% OJ for future generations.
Marisa L. Zansler is the director of the Economic and Market Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow.
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