Colorado State University (CSU) on July 9 decreased its Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast slightly and now calls for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. CSU anticipates a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Information obtained through June indicates that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity slightly above the 1991–2020 average. CSU estimates that 2025 will have
- 16 named storms (average is 14.4)
- 80 named storm days (average is 69.4)
- 8 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
- 30 hurricane days (average is 27)
- 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2)
- 8 major hurricane days (average is 7.4)
All are slight reductions from the CSU forecasts issued in April and June.
HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be slightly above its long-period average. The probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas are:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 48% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 25% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville, Texas – 31% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
REASON FOR FORECAST CHANGE
The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.
However, CSU also anticipates the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.
A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
See the full CSU July 9 forecast update here.
Other organizations have also issued 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecasts; see forecasts from AccuWeather and NOAA.
Source: CSU
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