By Marisa Zansler
Over the past year, there has been a discreet change occurring in the orange juice (OJ) aisle amid supply shortages. Some of the familiar OJ cartons have changed, not in name but in composition. With Florida’s smaller crop and limited global OJ supplies, Florida’s processors have stretched that limited supply by offering more products that blend OJ with other fruit juices. It’s not ideal in terms of the revenue generated, but it has kept OJ on the shelves and in the minds of loyal consumers.
BLENDS AS A BRIDGE
Before HLB, Florida provided virtually all the oranges behind America’s favorite juice. But after years of low yields, processors found they could no longer rely solely on Florida oranges and started blending with 100% OJ from other regions. HLB and adverse weather have now made global OJ supplies increasingly uncertain, reducing overall availability by nearly half compared to a decade ago. Over the past year, processors have increased the number of blended juice products and drinks with less OJ content and other fruit juices to maintain shelf space and retain consumers.
The number of product UPCs tied to blends and juice drinks with lower OJ content has grown, often using similar packaging with lower price points to hold shelf space. During the 2024–25 season, volume share for OJ blends and drinks in the broader OJ beverage category rose from 38.8% to 40.6%. But these are stopgaps, not replacements, for 100% OJ. Despite this shift, 100% OJ drove 71.6% of the category’s revenue share during the same period. The data underscores that grower returns remain highest with the 100% OJ segment.
The blending strategy will help keep OJ in the refrigerated section and in the collective minds of consumers. But the tradeoff is for a limited time: OJ blends maintain visibility, but the lower price points serve to lure consumers away from 100% OJ and could eventually harm Florida grower competitiveness as new production with higher quality Brix returns.
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
The data is clear: When the price of premium OJ drops, the purchase intent immediately rises. The preference for 100% OJ has not changed; it instead appears to be adjusting to the economic realities the industry and the consumer face today.
The good news is consumer behavior tells the real story. According to FDOC’s OJ Tracker, consumers continue to value OJ for its wellness and nutritional benefits. They haven’t turned away from it, but they are price conscious. Notably, OJ blends and drinks are offered at significantly lower price points. According to a recent Florida Agricultural Market Research Center study at the University of Florida, consumers are purchasing OJ less frequently when they perceive the prices are too high. The takeaway is clear: The willingness to pay for OJ is still there, but it depends on awareness of the health and wellness attributes, on perceived value and consistent availability.
REPLANTING TO REBOUND
Now, the conversation shifts from survival to revival. Through state and federal support, growers have received assistance to replant groves and restore a stronger domestic supply. The current replanting efforts are another step toward Florida reclaiming its standing as the backbone of America’s OJ industry.
This is not merely the story of agriculture but a story about identity. The Florida orange has always been associated with the highest quality and premium taste. Marketing efforts should ensure that 100% OJ remains the face of the category with the halo effect supporting the broader category as a whole.
OJ blends are offering processors a way to survive the toughest supply seasons in the history of the OJ industry and are keeping OJ present at retail at a time when other beverages are vying to replace it.
But the future belongs to the juice consumers already believe in, 100% OJ from oranges mainly grown in Florida, backed by strong health and wellness messaging, and supported by a willingness to pay that becomes visible whenever supply allows prices to normalize.
As the replanting efforts continue and Florida’s production gradually rebounds, the market will have a chance to pivot back toward the product that built the industry. The work now is to keep reminding consumers why 100% OJ has always been worth choosing and why Florida remains at the center of that story.
Marisa L. Zansler is the director of the Economic and Market Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow.
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