New research suggests that how citrus trees respond to water stress may be more important than simply how much water they receive. The findings could help growers improve irrigation management, reduce fruit cracking and protect yields as weather becomes more variable.
An article about the study — “Linking plant water status dynamics to yield and fruit cracking in citrus orchards using UAV multi-sensor data and machine learning” — was published in the journal Agricultural Water Management. The authors of the study are Moshe (Vladislav) Dubinin and Tarin Paz-Kagan of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel; and Michael Morozov, Ohaliav Keisar, Guy Lidor, Victor Alchanatis and Avi Sadka of the Volcani Agricultural Research Institute in Israel.
Researchers monitored an Ori mandarin orchard in Israel over three growing seasons (2023–2025). They combined drone (UAV) imagery collected with multispectral, thermal and LiDAR sensors with field measurements of tree water status and machine-learning models to better understand the relationship among irrigation, yield and fruit cracking.
One of the biggest takeaways was that plant water status — how the tree responds to water availability — predicted fruit cracking more accurately than irrigation volume alone. Mid-season measurements of stem water potential and stomatal conductance proved to be especially valuable indicators of both final yield and cracking risk.
The study also showed that more irrigation did not necessarily reduce fruit cracking. In fact, the season with the lowest cracking (about 3%) received roughly 25% less irrigation than other years. Meanwhile, the highest cracking occurred during a season with intense heat events, despite greater irrigation. This indicates that heat stress and rapid changes in tree water status may play a larger role in fruit cracking than water volume by itself.
For citrus growers, the research highlights the value of precision irrigation. Instead of managing irrigation uniformly across an entire grove, future technologies could identify specific areas where trees are under greater stress and adjust irrigation accordingly. Drone imagery combined with machine learning may eventually allow growers to detect high-risk zones before fruit cracking becomes severe.
Although the work was conducted in an Israeli mandarin orchard, the concepts are applicable to citrus production elsewhere, including Florida. As growers face increasing weather extremes, tools that monitor tree water status instead of relying solely on irrigation schedules may help improve both fruit quality and yield.
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