(Photo by Holly from Asheville, USA, via Wikimedia Commons)
The initial 2026–27 California navel orange forecast, released Sept. 11, is 84 million cartons. The forecast is based on the results of the 2026–27 Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from June 23 to Aug. 16. The forecast was issued by the California Department of Food and Agriculture, cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
The forecast includes production of conventional, organic and specialty navel oranges (including Cara Cara and blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 388, up 3% from the previous year. The average diameter from the survey was 2.176 inches, down less than 1% from the previous year.
Bearing acreage is estimated at 109,000, which results in a forecasted yield of 771 cartons per acre.
Funding for the survey was provided by the California citrus industry.
THE SURVEY SAMPLE
A sample of 813 navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county, variety and bearing acreage, with 759 of the groves utilized in the survey. Of the those, 138 were in Fresno County, 437 were in Tulare County, 161 were in Kern County and 23 were in the remaining counties (Glenn, Kings, Madera, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura).
A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984–85 crop year, except for the 1991–92 season due to a lack of funding.
CARA CARA FORECAST
Cara Cara variety production is forecast at 13 million cartons. Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 312, up 8% from the previous year. The average diameter from the survey was 2.231 inches, up less than 1% from the previous year.
Bearing acreage is estimated at 15,000, which results in a yield of 867 cartons per acre.
See the full California navel orange forecast here.
Source: CDFA
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