U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) released its first citrus crop forecast of the 2026–27 season on Oct. 9. The federal forecast for all Florida citrus varieties, with the exception of lemons, is down from last season. All citrus crops in other states are expected to increase.
FLORIDA
The Florida all-orange crop is expected to plummet to 10 million boxes, which is 23% lower than last season’s 12.95 million boxes. Valencia orange production is forecast to fall to 7 million boxes, a 14% decrease. Non-Valencia varieties are projected to drop to 3 million boxes, a 37% drop.
Florida’s grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.3 million boxes, 4% down from 1.35 million boxes last season.
Florida tangerines and mandarins are projected at 450,000 boxes, down 2% from 460,000 boxes last season.
Lemons, the lone bright spot for Florida in the forecast, are projected to see a production rise of 6% from 900,000 boxes last season to 950,000 boxes this season.
Despite the forecast, Florida Citrus Mutual Executive Vice President and CEO Matt Joyner took an optimistic long-term view of the Florida industry.
“The devastating freezes last winter were a speed bump on our road to recovery,” Joyner said. “But there are many signs that point to strong performance in the years ahead. Growers are reporting healthier trees and improved fruit quality, and we’re seeing higher production per acre. As newly planted acreage matures, we’re hopeful the data will reflect the optimism we feel in the groves this season.”
“The tenacity and grit of Florida citrus growers cannot be overstated,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “The faith of a farmer is nothing to mess around with. In partnership with our best-in-class research community, Florida citrus remains a significant economic driver in the state of Florida and well-positioned for future investment.”
OTHER STATES
California oranges are forecast at 50.5 million boxes in 2026–27, up from 49.5 million boxes last season. California grapefruit production is forecast at 4.8 million boxes, up from last season’s 4.4 million boxes. California tangerines and mandarins are projected at 32 million boxes, up from 31 million boxes. Lemons are projected at 28 million boxes, up from 26 million boxes.
Texas oranges are forecast at 1.2 million boxes, up from 1.09 million boxes the prior season. Texas grapefruit production is projected at 2.4 million boxes, up from 2.1 million boxes.
Arizona lemon production is forecast at 850,000 boxes, up from 720,000 boxes last season.
See the full citrus forecast here.
The next USDA NASS citrus crop forecast will be released Jan. 12.
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