Expectations for Brazil’s 2022–23 Orange Crop

Josh McGillBrazil, Orange Juice, Production

Brazil’s 2022–23 orange harvest is expected to yield a crop of 414.4 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx), an increase of 15% over the prior season’s production. That forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) in its semi-annual report on Brazilian citrus.

Brazil’s 2022–23 Orange

Most of Brazil’s 2022–23 orange harvest will come from the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais. Those regions are expected to produce 317 MBx, an increase of 20% over the prior year. One reason for the expected larger crop is the increase in irrigation in Brazilian groves. Irrigated groves now make up 39% of citrus land compared to 31% in 2018.

Production costs are estimated at more than U.S. $6,600 per hectare, a rise of 27% over the prior year. High fertilizer, agricultural chemical and diesel prices helped drive up total production costs.

The yield is projected at 1.82 boxes per tree, an increase of 12% over the prior season. Total tree inventory is projected at 262.3 million trees, an increase of 12.7%. The area planted in oranges is projected at 614,100 hectares, up 9,700 hectares.

Brazilian fresh orange consumption is projected at 113.8 MBx, relatively unchanged compared to the prior season. Fresh orange exports are projected at 0.2 MBx. Virtually no fresh orange exports were estimated for the prior year. Fresh orange imports are projected to be stable at 0.6 MBx. Egypt, Uruguay, Spain and Argentina are the main countries of origin for the imports.

Brazilian concentrated orange juice (OJ) production is projected at 1.138 million metric tons (MMT) of 65 Brix product, an increase of 12% over the prior season. The Sao Paulo industry is expected to process 278 MBx as OJ — 197 MBx for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) and 80 MBx for not-from concentrate (NFC).

Domestic FCOJ equivalent consumption is projected at 75,000 metric tons (MT), 65 Brix equivalent, an increase of 5,000 MT over the prior season. (Note: 1 metric ton of FCOJ 65 Brix equals 5.4 to
5.6 metric tons of NFC 11.6 Brix.)

Brazilian FCOJ exports are forecast at 1.04 MMT, a slight increase of 30,000 MT over the prior season. The European Union remains the major destination for Brazilian OJ, taking approximately 64% of Brazil’s OJ shipments.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service

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