Orange Crop Forecast for Brazil Remains Stable

Tacy CalliesBrazil, Crop Forecast

orange crop forecast

The second 2022–23 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on Dec. 12 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is 314.11 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. This update indicates that the crop remains within expectations in relation to the projected forecast in September, with an increase of only 20 thousand boxes, which corresponds to 0.01%. The crop loss presented in the previous update of 0.9% in relation to the initial expectation is maintained, due to the volume of rainfall below the historical average.

According to data from Somar/Climatempo, the average rainfall in the citrus belt accumulated from May to November 2022 was 31% below normal. This is mainly associated with the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, which has remained at moderate intensity since May. In addition to lower volumes, rains fell in isolated spots and were uneven even among neighboring municipalities.

The effects of reduced rainfall were mitigated by the better distribution of rains over the seven months following harvest and lower temperatures in November. From the current month until the end of the crop season, rains are usually heavier, which contributes to the growth of oranges. On the other hand, during the summer, rains usually occur in the form of storms that accentuate the early fruit drop.

Considering all varieties in this new projection, 260 fruits are needed to compose a box, which means one less orange compared to the forecast in September. This amount of fruit is equivalent to 5.54-ounce oranges, which is similar to the average weight observed in Brazil’s last five orange crops.

The projected average fruit drop rate has increased from 19.8% to 20.1%.

In mid-November, harvest reached about 60% completion, but it is still at a slower pace, mainly due to the high concentration of fruit from the second bloom. Harvest of the early varieties Hamlin, Westin and Rubi has already reached completion.

See Brazil’s updated orange crop forecast here.

Source: Fundecitrus