Rabobank recently forecast a challenging 2026–27 harvest year for the global orange juice (OJ) industry. It reported that while global supply is forecast to contract, the ongoing decline in OJ demand is likely to continue. As a result, global frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) prices are expected to struggle to recover sustainably.
This article, focusing on OJ supply, consists of edited excerpts from Rabobank’s report, titled “Orange Juice Outlook 2026/27: No Demand Recovery in Sight.”
Following a strong rebound in 2025–26, global output is expected to decline by 13% in 2026–27. This contraction will primarily be driven by a smaller harvest in Brazil, reflecting elevated citrus greening incidence and weather-related disruptions. In addition, there is stagnation or further declines in other key exporting countries.
BRAZIL
Brazil’s Fundecitrus on May 8 projected Brazilian 2026–27 orange production at 255.2 million boxes, a 12.9% decline from the prior year. Learn more about that forecast here.
Despite continued growth in the number of productive trees in São Paulo, yields for 2026–27 are expected to deteriorate noticeably. The average number of fruits per tree will fall by 17% across all key orange varieties, likely reaching an estimated 514 fruits per tree in 2026–27, down from 617 the prior year.
For context, the average orange harvest in Brazil’s São Paulo Citrus Belt over the past 10 years has been around 300 million boxes. However, the underlying trend seems to indicate progressively smaller harvests.
Citrus greening incidence reached 47.6% in 2025. Rising greening rates and severity are putting significant pressure on output.
Higher fruit drop rates are closely linked to the growing incidence and severity of citrus greening, with roughly half of all fruit loss attributed to the disease. The effects of citrus greening on trees are projected to cause fruit losses of nearly 50 million boxes in Brazil’s 2026–27 season.
The remaining losses due to fruit droppage are caused by other factors, including citrus leprosis (which saw a notable increase in 2025–26 and is now responsible for 2.5% of fruit droppage), natural and mechanical causes, citrus fruit borer and fruit flies.
OTHER COUNTRIES
After growing to 1.34 million metric tons in 2025–26, global OJ supply is forecast to contract broadly in line with Brazil’s trend in 2026–27. This would entail a decline to around 1.16 million metric tons.
Other key global suppliers are also under pressure, including Mexico, Florida and the European Union, which are collectively expected to produce 215,000 metric tons (orange juice equivalent) in the upcoming harvest. This is approximately 13% below 2025–26 levels.
As a result, the global forecast for industrialized OJ supply points to an overall decline of around 180,000 metric tons, of which Brazil accounts for roughly 145,000 metric tons.
See the full Rabobank report here.
Source: Rabobank
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