In a recent forecast of a challenging 2026–27 season for the global orange juice (OJ) market, Rabobank addresses the expected continued decline in OJ demand.
Edited excerpts from the Rabobank report follow:
Demand for OJ shows no signs of recovery. Although global frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) and not from concentrate (NFC) prices have been trending downward since early 2025, retail prices in key markets remain close to record high levels. This continues to weigh on consumption, particularly amid rising energy and food inflation that are leading consumers to trade down or trade out of higher-priced categories.
Further inventory accumulation is expected at the end of both 2025–26 (June 2026) and 2026–27 (June 2027). These rising stock levels are likely to complicate a sustained price recovery in the FCOJ and orange markets in the short term.
Rising retail prices further constrain volume sales as consumers reduce volume purchases.
Elevated stocks of high-priced FCOJ and NFC at bottlers and retailers in late 2024 likely contributed to higher retail prices in the first half of 2025. However, the persistence of elevated pricing over the past four quarters suggests that retailers and potentially bottlers are prioritizing margin per liter over total volume sold, particularly in key markets such as the United States and Europe.
In the United States, average OJ prices increased from $2.50 per liter in 2023–24 to $2.90 per liter in 2024–25, reaching approximately $3.10 per liter in 2025–26. In contrast, New York futures have declined over the same period, falling from around $4 per pound in 2023–24 to approximately $1.90 per pound in 2025–26.
Elevated retail prices have continued to weigh on volume sales across key markets, with volumes underperforming in recent quarters. Demand is projected to contract by 3% in 2026–27 compared to 2025–26 levels and reach just over 1.04 million metric tons. This level would equate to a contraction in global demand of 40% over the past 10 years.
On a more positive note, April data indicated the first monthly decline in average U.S. retail prices since 2021, with a modest decrease of 1.8%. This may signal that retail prices are beginning to respond to weakening volumes and could see gradual downward adjustments in the coming months.
However, caution is warranted. In highly consolidated retail markets such as the United States and Europe, it is typically challenging for large retailers to pass supplier price declines through to shelf prices.
Fruit prices are reflecting the current environment of low global FCOJ prices and expectations of ample stock availability for the 2026–27 season. Spot orange prices in São Paulo, Brazil are currently trading below $6 per box, a sharp decline from the highs of $20 per box in 2024. At these levels, prices are below the cost of production for many farmers.
See a summary of Rabobank’s outlook for global OJ supply here.
Source: Rabobank
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