Colorado State University (CSU) made little change to its 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast in its final seasonal update on Aug. 5, but it did lower the probabilities of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and tracking through the Caribbean.
CSU continues to forecast nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) for the season. Those numbers are unchanged from the university’s July 8 update. The forecast remains well below the 1991–2020 averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
LOWER LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The biggest change in the forecast involves landfall probabilities.
For a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. coastline, CSU lowered the probability from 17% in July to 16%. The probability along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, dropped from 8% to 7%. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability decreased from 10% to 9%.
CSU also lowered the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean, from 19% to 17%.
Those probabilities have steadily declined throughout the season. In June, CSU put the chances of a major hurricane hitting the entire U.S. coastline at 24%, the East Coast and Florida Peninsula at 11%, and the Gulf Coast at 14%. The Caribbean probability was 26%.
STRONG EL NIÑO
CSU expects a strong El Niño to continue developing through the peak of hurricane season. The resulting high levels of wind shear across the Atlantic are expected to suppress tropical development. Atlantic water temperatures are also described as generally less favorable than in recent hurricane seasons.
CSU is now extremely confident a strong El Niño will be present during the peak of hurricane season.
While the seasonal forecast is encouraging, CSU notes that a below-average season does not eliminate the possibility of an impactful hurricane. A single storm can still cause significant damage.
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