According to a September 2026 Rabobank report, the current environment for Brazilian orange juice (OJ) remains challenging for both farmers and the industry, with prices still low but starting to show some slightly positive signs. It reported that spot orange prices for the industry increased from BRL 25/box (approximately $4.30/box in U.S. dollars) in May to BRL 31/box (approximately $6.03/box in U.S. dollars) in August.
“This represents a slight price recovery, but levels remain below production costs for a significant share of growers,” Rabobank stated in its Brazil Agribusiness Quarterly report.
“FCOJ (frozen concentrated OJ) futures in New York have started to see some moderate gains to USD 1.58/lb in late-August, above the yearly low of USD 1.32/lb earlier in July,” Rabobank reported.
Regarding listed prices, FCOJ is trading near $2,800 per metric ton in Europe, while not-from-concentrate (NFC) is close to the $950 per metric ton level, according to the report.
“While the market understands that stocks are back close to normalized levels, there are concerns surrounding future production as a strong El Niño could have a significant impact on next year’s crop,” the report stated. “Additionally, demand in developed markets could start to show some traction if prices move slightly lower and some retail data is starting to show more stable volume numbers.”
Rabobank cited ample fruit availability in the current crop season as a positive factor for the OJ industry. That fruit availability will allow the industry to produce high-quality juice tailored to the specific requirements of bottlers, it stated.
“The missing piece for a recovery in demand, and eventually in prices across the value chain, remains the retail price of orange juice,” the report stated. It cited AC Nielsen data published by the Florida Department of Citrus showing that OJ retail prices in the United States are 8.5% higher than in the previous crop year, with volumes down by 6.4%. NFC prices are up by 10%, and volume is down by 3%. For reconstituted juice, prices are up by 1.9%, and volumes are down by 9.7%.
“On a positive note, prices have been flattening in recent weeks and volumes are starting to show more stability,” the Rabobank report stated. “Early signs are that demand could potentially be more stable, especially if prices remain flat or move lower.”
The report noted that signs of a strong El Niño pattern, along with extended dry spells at the end of winter and above-average temperatures for longer periods, could affect flowering for the 2027–28 crop season. “This, coupled with low grower margins and reduced investment in crop management, makes it likely that production will be lower in the next crop year,” the report stated.
For details on the current Brazilian orange crop, see the Fundecitrus forecast issued on Sept. 10.
Source: Rabobank
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