Fundecitrus’ first re-estimate of the 2026–27 orange crop for Brazil’s São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais regions, released Sept. 10, indicates production of 263.15 million 40.8-kilogram boxes. That’s an increase of 7.95 million boxes, or 3.1%, from the initial estimate released in May.
The revision stems from an upward adjustment in projected fruit weight for early- and mid-season varieties, which more than offsets the projected increase in the premature fruit drop rate for these varieties.
WEATHER
According to data from Climatempo Meteorology, accumulated average rainfall in the Citrus Belt from May to August was 51% higher than the historical average for 1991 to 2020. Rainfall in May and August was close to historical norms, while June and July recorded volumes significantly above average.
HARVEST
As in the previous season, the pace of the harvest is slower than usual, but this trend is even more pronounced in the current crop year. By mid-August, only 27% of the production had been harvested. This delay is attributed to the high proportion of fruit from the second bloom and the decision to prioritize harvesting at the optimal stage of maturity.
By mid-August, harvest of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties had reached 85%. For other early-season varieties, the figure stood at 65%. The harvest of the mid-season Pera variety reached 16%. Among late-season varieties, the harvest of Valencia and Folha Murcha totaled 1.2%, while that of the Natal variety stood at 0.1%.
FRUIT SIZE
The combination of above-average rainfall and a slower harvest pace favored weight gain in early- and mid-season varieties. Considering the average across all varieties, the estimate shifts from 255 fruits per box in May to 246 fruits per box in this revised forecast.
FRUIT DROP
The extended time that fruit remained on trees, combined with high pest and disease pressure, led to increased premature fruit drop in early- and mid-season varieties compared to the same period in previous years. The increasing severity of citrus greening, along with incidences of citrus leprosis and citrus canker exceeding historical levels, intensified fruit drop. The average fruit drop rate, initially projected at 23.7% in the May estimate, has been revised to 24.1%.
See the September forecast report here. The next Brazilian orange crop forecast will be released on Dec. 10.
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