Photo courtesy of University of California, Riverside
The 2026–27 California forecast for the Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin varieties, released Sept. 11, is for 38 million 40-pound cartons. The forecast is based on the results of the 2026–27 Mandarin Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from June 20 to Aug. 23. The forecast was issued by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS).
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and mandarins per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 493, down 2% from the previous year.
The average diameter from the survey was 1.365 inches, less than 1% above last year’s diameter for these varieties.
COUNTY AVERAGES
Average fruit set per tree and average diameter, by county, were:
- Fresno – 415 fruit set per tree, 1.325 diameter
- Kern – 389 fruit set per tree, 1.341 diameter
- Madera – 330 fruit set per tree, 1.476 diameter
- Tulare – 610 fruit set per tree, 1.349
- Other (Imperial, Kings and Riverside) – 387 fruit set per tree, 1.742 diameter
Bearing acreage is estimated at 36,000, which results in a yield of 1,056 40-pound cartons per acre.
Funding for the survey was provided by the California citrus industry.
This is the fourth year the USDA NASS has published a production forecast of Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin varieties.
SURVEY SAMPLE
A sample of 338 Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, with 336 of these groves utilized in the survey.
In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were collected on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two sampled trees. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree.
See the full forecast here.
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